The Demand Signal from Generative AI: Promising Numbers, Wary Founders
Emerging platforms could be worth $10-50 billion according to back-of-the-napkin math, but their own creators wonder "maybe nobody wants this and it won't work".
After Tuesday’s essay went out, a reader pointed out that the section on the “Missing Demand Side Signal” section could have been stronger. That there are ways to estimate demand for generative AI platforms.
That is a fair critique. That said, it is hard to identify and is worth diving further into why. Part of the problem is the math based on the available evidence. The other problem is that it may be that the market has already been captured by platforms, as tech analyst Mary Meeker wrote in her most recent Technology as Innovation (TAI) Report for Bond Capital.
The Math
There is one simple, back-of-the-napkin math answer: Showrunner Edward Saatchi estimates the market opportunity to be $10 billion peeled off from both “cinema”($200B)—or Movies & Entertainment— and gaming ($150B). Assuming existing subscription prices at around $20 per month, there are 42 million potential users, or 4% of 1.1 billion TV households worldwide. It is also between 10% and 20% of Netflix’s subscriber base (~350 million) and 6% of OpenAI’s 700 million weekly users. Assuming a conservative estimate of 10% of a marketplace being vulnerable to change, that seems reasonable.
