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My 2025 Predictions Scorecard
5 right, 5 wrong, 2 TBD—I called Disney/Epic and the NFL. I whiffed on Netflix.
Dec 18
4
2
Reader Feedback: Netflix Retreats From Gaming Exactly When Gaming Becomes the Future
Netflix's platform was built for content recommendations, not the community and creation tools gaming offers. The WBD acquisition confirms they're…
Dec 17
8
1
EA Went Private, Disney Partnered With OpenAI: Why Only One Can Use AI for Growth
Power laws make content-only relationships unsustainable. EA's gaming habits escape this trap. When AI drives content costs toward zero, relationships…
Dec 15
6
2
Disney's $1B OpenAI Bet Tests Whether Licensing Can Protect IP
When Sora learns from Disney's training data (Mickey meets Spider-Man), it will applies those patterns to future partners' content next. Can licensing…
Dec 11
2
1
The Air-Gapping Problem: Why Netflix Can't Protect Warner Bros IP Through Cloud Partnerships
Unless Netflix acquires (unlikely) or sells a stake to a cloud provider (super-expensive but possible), the $82.7B WBD acquisition carries IP leakage…
Dec 10
5
1
How The Warner Bros. Bidding War Exposed Netflix's Strategic Dead-Ends
Three dead-ends forced Netflix's surprise bid: exhausted growth (can't reach 1B organically), failed innovation (gaming abandoned after May hype), lost…
Dec 8
5
1
Netflix's $28/Share Trap: When Power Laws Force Bad Deals
Without Oracle-like infrastructure or theatrical distribution, Netflix is betting it can help WBD IP survive streaming AND AI disruption.
Dec 5
2
1
Why Advertisers Always Beat Creators in AI Content Economics
AI rewards targeting over quality, interactivity over passive content. Advertisers monetize the full engagement loop. Creators share platform revenue…
Dec 3
6
1
Why The Future of AI Storytelling Belongs to Advertisers, Not Hollywood
Hollywood execs see AI as "small" because they're focused on a $250B creator economy with brutal power laws. The real market: $800B in digital…
Dec 1
4
1
November 2025
Reader Feedback: Why Disney Can't Simply License Cloud Services for AI Instead of Owning Them
Cloud contracts cover storage, not AI training. Legal indemnification is unclear. And Paramount/Oracle pay zero margins while Disney must feed the…
Nov 26
5
1
Generative AI Breaks "Faster, Cheaper, Better—Pick Two". The Catch: Complexity.
Creators are proving they can deliver all three by orchestrating 10+ tools. They are also reviving Marshall McLuhan's question: Can you serve culture…
Nov 24
4
1
Why Paramount's Oracle Ownership Beats Disney's Fragmented Cloud Partnerships
The Ellisons own both studio and cloud provider—enabling end-to-end IP control Disney can't match with separate AWS and Google partnerships. Disney's…
Nov 17
7
1
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